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29 septembre

Japanese Jumping Back into Wall Street as China Sits and Watches

转载一篇文章关于中国投资公司和摩根的。看到了新浪网上关于这可能的第二笔投资的一片骂声,我个人的观点就是:这是个难得的投资机会。尽管broker-dealer的模式现在受到很多的质疑,但投资银行在资源调配中的作用是如何也不可能被取代的。CIC如果买50%的摩根,这绝对是个绝好的长期战略性投资。美国这一代投资银行在过去几十年的全球扩张中,通过帮助各个国家的大企业融资,为各国政府和企业做财务顾问,积累了很多各个不同市场的经济金融知识。更重要的是,摩根和高盛几十年心血在各国建立起来的平台和品牌,一旦市场恢复正常,将收获巨大的回报。投资银行生意,最重要的就是品牌。中国自己这么多年来通过CICC和BOCI,应该也明白创建自己的品牌是多么不容易的一件事。不要说去抢外国的市场份额,连自己国家的,要不是因为有保护性政策,可能早就都输给摩根和高盛了。现在花不到150亿美元买50%全球第二大投行,我看实在是值。更别说摩根每年的净利润也有40-50亿美元。

CIC的人曾和我说过,他们很想专注于长期投资,但现在看来不理会短期投资表现也不行。我觉得国人的许多评论给了他们太大的压力,以至于先是买贵的,现在便宜了又不敢买。在我看来,之前对摩根10%的投资就是战略性投资,现在更便宜了反而开始犹犹豫豫,实在是大忌。现在摩根卖给了日本人,不知道中国的广大愤青又要怎么想


Japanese Jumping Back into Wall Street as China Sits and Watches
byCSC staff
 

Wall Street investment banks, or their remnants, eager for outside cash, have found some big buyers. On September 22, Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan’s largest bank, announced plans to buy a 10%-20% stake in Morgan Stanley, making it the biggest share holder and earning it a seat on the board of directors. The deal may run as high as $9 billion. The same day, Japan-based Nomura Securities picked up Lehman Brothers Asian units for $225 million.

The acquisitions by its financial firms clearly have the Japanese market’s support. Both Mitsubishi’s and Nomura’s share price has risen on the news. According to Nikkei News, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan’s second largest bank by market value, will spend 100 billion yen  to buy part of $2.5 billion shares issued by the Goldman Sachs.

The Japanese financial firms’ decisive moves will discomfit their Chinese rivals. After all, China Investment Corporation (CIC), China’s sovereign wealth fund, already bought a 9.9% stake in Morgan Stanley for $5 billion , but has not only not gained a seat on the board, its investment has lost much of its value. And the stake CIC acquired in Black Stone for $ 3 billion has also suffered, about a 50% book loss.

Financial acquisitions abroad by CIC and other state-owned financial institutions trigger strong doubts in China. Their overseas investments must be approved by the State Council, but the decision-making circle has not reached consensus on whether it is a proper time to buy on the Wall Street. Market rumors had it that CIC had intended to acquire almost 50% of Morgan Stanley shares, but if it did it came to naught. 

Japanese firms’ previous round of capital export started in 1985. On September 1985, under pressure from other countries, the Japanese government signed the Plaza Accord. Within three months, the yen’s exchange rate against the USD surged by 20% from 250: 1 to 200: 1. Within three years, the exchange rate against the USD zoomed to 120: 1, and even nearly 70: 1 at the peak.

Drastic yen appreciation caused serious loss to Japan’s export sector, which is very crucial to Japan. But as the real economy could not absorb too much capital, Japanese enterprises were forced to expand overseas, which coincided with the US need for domestic industrial adjustment. Japanese companies blindly bought vast amounts of firms, real estate, futures, stocks, even art collections, prompting worried editorials in US papers about the Japanese “taking over.” But the domestic bubble burst in Japan in the early ‘90s, and Japanese firms had to divest themselves of much of their US booty, and Japan suffered a long term downturn until recently.

This time, Japanese enterprises are behaving more rationally.

As one of the world’s major manufacturers, exporters, and depositors, Japan was for long the world’s No. 1 foreign currency holder. Even now it is second, next only to China, and the largest owner of US government bonds.

Unlike developing countries such as China and India, Japan is already into the post-industrial period. With domestic resource shortages and a seriously aging population, Japan’s surplus capital needs to seek more stable and higher investment returns worldwide. Japan has been a good low-interest fund supporter these years. Every year $66 billion flow from Japan to 6 emerging markets in Asia through Standard Chartered. Japan has issued 1.7087 trillion yen of Samurai bonds so far this year, an increase of 32% over the previous year.

As the US financial turmoil has worsened, prices of US financial shares have dropped to their lowest level in the recent five years. Last Wednesday alone, the share prices of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, the last two Wall Street bulge-bracket investment banks, slumped by 44% and 23%, respectively. But since the US government is expected to launch bailout policies, global market investors’ confidence has rebounded, and with important rivals gone, the investment value of the two firms has been re-discovered.

Japanese companies’ return to Wall Street is a product of global financial integration, which is a result of the global economic integration. Wall Street’s troubles offer a good chance for low-cost expansion.

Japan’s return also means the trend of financial globalization, which has been widely damaged due to the spread of the subprime crisis, is being gradually restored. In the future, global financial giants must be more diversified and must accept greater, and wider, supervision and rules. This will help to remedy the increasingly wide gap between capital globalization and local supervision.




15 août

london 2

Last week of training in London. Feeling sad. Good thing always come to an end. This is the very best month I had in a very long time. I've been so used to saying goodbyes but still feel hard this time. This training has brought me back feelings of college life, at a time when I have been working for one year. There are so much good moments I want to capture with my eyes, but I'm afraid I might have forgotten a lot of them....when I look back in a few years' time. Now, all the uncertainties are gone, together with college life, end of an era. There will be no more training, no school, no pressure-free life.... scared of turning old in a glimpse's time and didn't have too much left in the memory, or have too much good memory but nothing similar is ahead waiting.
Sign. I need to have my head cleared in HK and get back the excitement of work, if there is ever any.

Like someone said, we live in a golden age for investment banking. Also a time of great changes. 80's, ppl all want to trade bond for Salomon Brothers; 90's ppl want to be in the tech sector; entering new century it's all private equity. Now, is it the end of private equity again? Waiting for the answer...
16 juillet

london 1

在伦敦.training.在没有来过这里的时候一直对伦敦的印象很差.可能一直有"雾都孤儿"之类的印象在那里吧.到了这里之后印象有了很大的改观。很喜欢这里的建筑,非常的古典(基本没什么新房子),仅有的新房子(比如canary wharf)都非常的大气,和整个城市的感觉很配。(和香港就totally不同了)这样古典的城市,配上满街超级modarn的车--到处是最新的BMW,porsche等。还有第一次见到加长(3节车厢)的悍马。。。。这样的古典和现代却结合的非常的好。总之,一个很酷的城市。有机会我会要在这里工作。
2天的training,完完全全的感觉是重回校园生活!睡懒觉,逃课去城里玩,house party,见到不同国家,讲不同语言的人。。。还有,大家开始大量地乘坐公共交通--伦敦昂贵的物价使得很多MS的人都觉得难以接受了。在有时间的环境下,我倒是挺喜欢这种感觉的。很大一群同龄人在一起玩也是很开心。不过,我总是觉得我还是和很多人想法很不一样,总是想做一些很奇怪的事情。Any, I'm still trying to fit into this new environment and all these new ppl!
27 mai

西藏往左,尼泊尔往右,墨脱在天堂

......

Frank和我是同一类人,在一家外资物流公司做管理工作。但是胖胖和鉴是我完全不曾接触过的人类,他们俩的生活简直虚幻得让我不敢想象。
  
  旅途的魅力就在于,你可能遇到在你的生活里永远也不可能遇到的人,你永远不知道下一刻会发生什么。
  
  胖胖和鉴是大学同学在西安读完书后先后去了北京,然后和另外2个人一起做了个工作室,接平面设计的业务。4个大男人最多的时候在北京养了二十几只猫。空闲的时候在工作室用铁丝弯成型,敷上宣纸,画上水墨画,做一个一个漂亮的纸灯笼。
  
  鉴去美国读电影专业之后,依然过着如此闲适的时候。上课,拍照,上午喂乌鸦,下午喂松鼠。
  
  天呀,怎么有一种生活可以是这样。自从听他们零星地讲起生活的碎片,我就开始心理不平衡,怎么离我的生活这么远呢?一路我开始慢慢思索,难道过去的和将要继续的真的是我要的生活?究竟怎样的生活才不枉我们来世上一趟。
  
  我的生活似乎在代替我过日子,生活本身具有的奇异冲力,把我带得晕头转向:到最后,我感觉对生命一点选择都没有,丝毫无法作主。当然有时候我会对这种情形感到难过,会从全身冒冷汗的噩梦醒过来,怀疑“我是怎么过日子的?”但是我的恐惧只维持到早上,然后出门去公司,一切又回到原点。
  
  是一定要努力的达到某种高度,才能看得更远,还是跟随心灵的声音?

21 mai

music and lyrics

music and lyrics, 歌非常好听.特别是主题曲way back into love. 不过听这样的歌,我可能是老了....anyway, 我想要一间music room, and pick up things that i have lost over this many days. i hope, after many days or years, we will finally have some albums, and have a small bar to perform our music, which may someday touch other ppl's heart.
17 avril

boom and bust

网上看到的一篇文章。颇有感触。原来研究部沦为投行的附庸已经很早就开始了。原来我也做过为了investment banking revenue,指鹿为马,把不好的硬是说成的好的的事。。。。
数数当今有影响力的research house,也只有CLSA一间是号称independent research,(其实是围绕几个star sales组成的)。中银国际竟然还想把research归到middle office。。。如果不是横天而降的奇怪机会,我应该会很乐意继续做分析员。和这个安迪很像,我推荐的第一只股票,不仅要面对老板一脸的怀疑,还刚好撞上地产的黑色星期三!之后还有美股狂跌的连续打击。不过欣慰的是在我离开之前它已上到历史新高。在我看来,只有不论市好市坏,都坚持foundamental analysis的,才能玩好真正的金钱游戏!
A股市场也是。就如同老板在最新的monthly strategy写的,history often has a strange way of repeating itself. 人们总是在bull的时候过度乐观,在bear的时候过度悲观,导致总是boom and bust。其实投资也是一场与自我人性的较量。当能够不陷入普通人对金钱的那种贪婪时,就应该是能够做成功的时候了。
8个月在中银国际有很多体会,谢谢Anthony Lok!。。。无论走到哪里,我都是卑微的我。
 
安迪·凯斯勒是谁?

    他曾以377%的收益率,获1999年全美盈利率第四的对冲基金。他用了5年的时间,将1000万美元的投资变成了10亿美元,5年100倍。

    他以“30秒内,3个要点”这一独到的投资秘诀,发现了一个个获利翻几十倍的互联网公司,并能在泡沫爆破之前全身而退,成为华尔街的奇迹。

    11月30日,头顶黑色礼帽、手持彩色“魔棒”,第一次出现在国内投资者面前的凯斯勒看起来更像是一个“魔法师”,不同的是,这位来自华尔街的“魔法师”变得戏法却是金钱游戏。

    在第三届国际投资大师讲坛的现场,安迪·凯斯勒与国内投资者共同分享了他的科技股投资四大策略。而对于未来5年的中国股市,安迪·凯斯勒更是看好科技股的发展。

    从技术青年到华尔街新贵

    1980年,当安迪·凯斯勒刚刚从康奈尔大学(Cornell University)电子工程系毕业时,他或许从未想过有一天会玩起金钱游戏。

    在结束贝尔实验室5年电机工程师的工作后,这个只懂技术的年轻人穿着衬衫、宽松长裤就来到了华尔街,敲开了潘恩·韦伯集团的大门。

    不过这一次,安迪·凯斯勒没有那么幸运,在最初的分析师生涯中,他的表现遭透了。尽管华尔街的要求只是在51%的时候做出正确预测即可,但安迪·凯斯勒几乎全部预测错了。

    在撰写第一份研究报告时,恰逢芯片行情火热,安迪·凯斯勒却出人意料地唱出反调,对芯片股给出了“持股观望”的建议并在一周后建议“卖出”。

    同样的反调,安迪·凯斯勒在第二年7月继续唱起,当他认为芯片业的屠杀已经结束,建议投资者“买入”的时候,却又遭遇Intel公司的大幅亏损。

    尽管预测最初让人大跌眼镜,但之后的市场反应却完全应验了安迪·凯斯勒的分析。他的好运似乎开始到来,先是入选“I.I.排名”,这是《机构投资人》杂志推出的全美研究分析师排名,代表了在投资者和券商心目中最棒的分析师。之后,猎头电话不断,摩根斯坦利更是开出了高价聘请他。

    跳槽后的安迪·凯斯勒,似乎并没有完全适应摩根斯坦利的工作节拍。在他看来,华尔街正在改变,但研究部门的地位却在下降,甚至堕落为投行的附庸,为了获取更多利益,分析师们开始不再坚守自己独立的分析原则。

    1993年,安迪·凯斯勒正式告别摩根斯坦利,开始其个人投资者的角色,尽管对于这一切,外界有着不同版本的传言。但是后来的“大丰收”证明了离开摩根斯坦利对他来说是个不错的选择。

    经过1997年亚洲金融风暴以及1998年全球金融动荡,安迪·凯斯勒手头的股票几乎全部升值,有些甚至上涨了近10倍。就连当时表现最差的一些股票也上涨了近一半。

    从1999年开始,安迪·凯斯勒之前的投资开始有了回报,其基金以377%的年收益率,名列对冲基金排行榜第四。2000年后,盈利持续上升。基金规模也由最初的1000万美元达到了10亿美元。

    在市场还在飞涨的同时,安迪·凯斯勒又做出惊人之举,不仅拒绝了送上门的钱,更是逐步卖出持股,将资金还给了投资者。市场再一次验证了安迪·凯斯勒的长远眼光,网络泡沫开始破灭,大批投资者血本无归。
23 mars

一帆风顺,有时更增加心中的紧张.就如股市上升到新高,也代表着水涨船高的风险.当一切出乎意料的顺利的时候,我反而不知道自己到底要的是什么了.只是更高的工资,更风光的title,...? 所有这些已经离我不懂事时的有理想离得太远了.所以我解释给自己,也许我只是想要有一个时候能彻底厌倦这个行业吧.
 
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